Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Wednesday AM: The State of Social Media, Market Size and Key Trends

Michael Cai, VP of Research, Video Games, Interpret, Panel Director plus...
Nick O'Neill, Founder, Social Times
Barry Gilbert, Vice President, Strategy Analytics


Nick nick@socialtimes.com (can ping him to get the statistics)

Social advertising paradigm: consumers are willing to give up some privacy for more-targetted advertising.

80% of recruiters are using LinkedIn as their primary source of finding employees.

World map of social networks...FB is spreading through everywhere, although still growth needed in Asia and S. America. Mobile growth. Average American teen received 2272 texts/mo. FB has > 65M mobile users.

V goods growth...$2.2B in v goods sold, 25x as many in Asia than US. By 2013, >$6B.

Shift towards multiple screens (i.e. simultaneous computer, TV, phone use). 10% of people watching TV are simultaneously browsing social networks at the same time (acc to Nielsen).

Best practices...

(1) iterate quickly (short product devel cycle)
(2) talented sales team...people who sell tech products well have good sales team
(3) listen...monitor customers on SNSs and participate in conversation
(4) build relationships

Michael

Consumer data

Interpret does quarterly tracking survey of 9000 US consumers to look at consumption of all media to educate advertisers and ad agencies. Only been tracking social media for a few quarters. Projected to US population to get idea of size of different sites.

>120M US access social networks on a weekly basis. 64M have 2+ accounts. FB is leading in US. 89M active users at end of 2009Q2. 66M on MySpace. Explosive growth on Twitter...19M end of Q2.

Both VW and SNS industries have the problem of bringing the opposite genders together. WoW 85% male. FB an MySpace have nearly-balanced male/female ratios. On FB, female users are more active. This is why they have been so successful in scaling up. FB trends older than MS (drops off at 35). Females are also more active in their SNS activities such as viewing photos, sending messages, etc. This includes monetizeable activities.

Younger demographics more likely to have adopted SNS. But once an age group is on an SNS, the behavior converges. This is the viral effect. Except for updating status and posting comments on friends page, self-expressive actions have less-active older demographics. For everything else, they are equally active.

35% of iPhone users access a SNS from their phone. Motorola who lead the market a few years ago is seriously lagging. They are moving towards phones to allow SNS access.

Barry bgilbert@strategyanalytics.com

"The Digital Native": people looking at the behaviors for the past 10 years. They will carry this forth to their working environments in the next 5-10 years. Engagement metrics.

Where do VWs fit in social media ecosystem? System has at its core information sources, communities of interest, etc. all circling the core of VWs and embedding the core of VWs in the elements of SNS, gaming, etc. The single most interesting aspect of VW to users is gaming. People interpret it largely as a gaming experience, then an immersive experience. Their participation is morphing. We will see VW elements embedded in SNS environments. VW and Web 2.0 are coming together quickly. WiiWorld. Critical success factor is digital rights management, portability, interoperability.

Expecting 187M unique global users on social VWs by end of 2009. The active users are actually a small percentage...23M. (Active = those who participate in a repeated way > 1 time/week) These are the people who spend money on digital goods, microtransactions, etc. Premium market (subscriber-based) is a very small percentage. Relative to overall growth, relatively small. V goods marketplace is doubling in 2009 over 2008.

2.6M global subscribers to a VW. (Question: this cannot include WoW, right? See below...no.) Expect 19.6M by 2014 as payment methods evolve.

Where participants are from: 26.7% N. Am. 4.0% Latin, 28.5% W. Eur. 25.5% N. Asia, 3.2% W. Eur. 9.4% S. Asia.

Active VW users not at the 1/2 of internet users. Will be 5% of the fixed broadband users by 2015 (NOT including mobile). 25% of VW users with logins are active. Converting people logging in to active user involves making the entrance in world easier. (These are the social VWs, not the gaming VWs.)

Revenue for VWs, advertising was 10% of market. V goods and microtransactions was > 66%, remaining in membership fees. This is changing...marketting will double by 2015. Biggest growth will be v goods....9.6B by 2013. (Conservative forecast is 6.5B.) Advertising has dropped 20% in the past year.

$20/mo is a breaking point for adoption...includes US and Asia.

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